Jauary 31, 2007:
==================
Greetings from America, Below is my Israel news and analysis report for January. It contains an Israeli army warning that major conflict could erupt in the region this year. It was written before the latest Palestinian suicide attack in Israel that claimed the lives of three people in the sourthern Red Sea port town of Eilat. I hope you are informed by it.
REGIONAL WAR LOOMING IN 2007
The Middle East remained poised on a knife’s edge during January as
American and European officials stepped up efforts to jump start the
moribund Road Map peace process. This came as Israeli army leaders
released an official assessment that a major regional conflict may erupt
during 2007 involving Israel, Lebanon, Syria, the Palestinians and Iran.
Meanwhile violence escalated during the month between rival Palestinian
factions amid renewed attempts to form a national unity government to
help
prevent a full blown civil war. Neighboring Lebanon crept ever closer
to
widespread civil conflict as the radical Shiite Hizbullah militia, backed
by Syria and Iran, stepped up efforts to overthrow the duly elected
Sunni-led government, which triggered intense street clashes in Beirut.
Israeli newspapers published details on January 12 of an official army
assessment warning that a major regional conflict is likely to erupt
later
this year. The annual military strategic assessment noted what was
understatedly termed “a decline in regional stability in the Middle
East,
giving rise to the possibility of hostilities involving Lebanon, Syria,
the
Palestinian Authority and Iran.” The army said its dire assessment
took
into account the “lessons learned” during the inconclusive
2006 summer
war
with Hizbullah militia forces operating out of Lebanon.
Israeli military analysts said the main reason for growing regional instability is stepped up Iranian meddling throughout the Middle East. They noted that the oil-flushed theocratic Muslim regime in Tehran is pumping copious amounts of financial aid and weapons to its Syrian, Lebanese Hizbullah and Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad allies, along with material aid going to Iranian-backed Shiite militias operating next door in violence-torn Iraq. Coming against the ominous backdrop of Iran’s escalating nuclear uranium enrichment program, the mullah’s meddling is succeeding in destabilizing the entire region, adding to growing prospects that major portions of the tense Middle East will erupt into full-scale warfare during 2007.
ISRAEL TAKES THE FIRST SHOT?
The IDF annual strategic assessment did not mention the prospect that
Israel might essentially take the first shot in the apparently brewing
conflict, aimed at thwarting Iran’s jihad-fueled vow to destroy the
world’s
only Jewish-ruled state in the coming days. Iran’s President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad repeated his often-voiced pledge during January to wipe
Israel
off of the regional map, stating again that it will happen suddenly and
soon.
The Shiite leader’s shrill threats were voiced as some Iranian media outlets reported that Ahmadinejad had recently told his closest supporters that he expects the so-called “missing Madhi”—a long revered Shiite religious leader who supposedly disappeared down a well in the Middle Ages—to reemerge on the world stage sometime before the annual spring equinox occurs on March 21. The reports were received with considerable trepidation in Jerusalem, since Israeli officials understand that the Madhi is expected to surface amid massive worldwide turmoil, such as an Iranian nuclear strike on tiny Israel, or even a preemptive American or Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear outposts, would undoubtedly spark off.
Adding to the prospect of a full-blown regional conflict later this year, Israeli security officials said that the global Al Qaida movement, operating from its notorious Iraqi branch, has succeeded in organizing new terror cells based in Sunni Palestinian neighborhoods located in southern Lebanon, as they had earlier done in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip.
Brigadier General Amos Yadin told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on January 9 that up to 100 Al Qaida agents had traveled to Lebanon from Pakistan and Iraq with the intention of organizing local attacks against United Nations and Lebanese Army forces operating in southern Lebanon in the wake of last year’s war. He said the anticipated attacks would be designed to repeat the massive terrorist atrocities that drove American, French and Italian peacekeeping forces from Lebanon in 1983, leaving the war torn country open to indirect Iranian control via its Syrian and Hizbullah surrogates.
TURMOIL AT THE TOP
Israeli governmental and military leaders were caught entirely off guard
when besieged Armed Forces Chief of Staff Dan Halutz suddenly resigned
as
overall military commander on January 16. His move came in reaction to
increasing calls from many quarters for him to be quickly replaced in
the
wake of the widely perceived IDF failure to defeat Hizbullah forces during
the 34 day war that ended last August 14.
The first chief of staff to rise to the top from the ranks of Israel’s
world renowned air force, Halutz said he could no longer adequately
command
the armed forces, given that confidence in his abilities had
sunk to
such a
low level. The resignation prompted renewed calls from
many politicians
and media pundits for embattled Prime Minister
Ehud Olmert and Defense
Minister Amir Peretz to follow suit and
resign from their high governmental
positions.
Dan Halutz quit his senior command post in anticipation of a special commission report that is expected to lambaste his performance both before and during the war. The report, to be issued in early March by the Olmert-appointed Winograd Committee, is expected to severely rebuke Halutz for relying too heavily on air power in the summer war at the expense of Israel’s substantial ground forces. Military analysts say over reliance on air force bombings led to relatively high Lebanese civilian casualties during the conflict, which in turn gave the extremist Hizbullah militia a strong propaganda advantage, especially in the Muslim world, but also with Lebanon’s large Sunni and Maronite Catholic sectors who are normally wary of the Iranian-funded militia.
After an initial split between Olmert and Peretz as to who should replace Halutz, a compromise candidate was put forth. The new chief of staff, Reserve Major General Gabi Ashkenazi, was actually a leading candidate to replace Moshe Ya’alon when he was sacked in June 2005 by Ariel Sharon after expressing strong reservations over the then-pending unilateral Gaza withdrawal plan. In a meeting with Peretz, the Premier was quoted as telling him that “after holding consultations with 15 senior military commanders, I found broad support for Ashkenazi, and was given a complete picture why he is the right candidate capable of leading and continuing the process of learning the lessons of the war, which Halutz initiated.”
The departing armed forces chief reportedly bristled at Olmert’s suggestion that it was he who had launched the controversial conflict with Hizbullah forces, instead of senior cabinet ministers who are legally responsible for making such fateful decisions. Political commentators generally echoed this critique, saying that the increasingly unpopular Prime Minister will not succeed in evading his ultimate responsibility for the war’s conduct by blaming mistakes on his chief military subordinate.
NETANYAHU COMES BACK
Olmert and Peretz agreed to Ashkenazi’s appointment as fresh opinion
polls
suggested that both men have reached a new nadir of support from the
Israeli public. A survey published in the Haaretz newspaper mid-month
showed that only 14% of Israeli voters now approve of the job Olmert
is
doing as Premier, compared to around 25% in earlier surveys. Amir Peretz,
who is generally expected to be replaced as Labour party leader when
an
internal party primary is held in May, was endorsed by a mere 10% of
the
voting public, down from around 15% in the war’s immediate wake.
Opinion polls also revealed that the ruling Kadima political party—formed
amid great fanfare by Ariel Sharon in late 2005 and widely anticipated
at
the time to become the new centrist force in Israeli politics for many
years to come—would reverse its fortunes from last March if elections
were
held today. Instead of capturing the 28 seats it secured in 2006, the
party would garner just 11 or 12 Knesset mandates, said several surveys.
The main opposition Likud party, from which most Kadima politicians fled,
would return as the country’s main political force, capturing around
29
seats. This would give its leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, the main shot
at
forming a new government.
In light of the army’s official assessment that a major regional conflict is brewing with some of Israel’s deadliest enemies this year, and with the resignation of Dan Halutz increasing pressure on both Peretz and Olmert to give up their national leadership jobs as well, some Israeli political analysts predicted that the embattled Premier will attempt to draft Netanyahu into an emergency national unity government in the coming months, as has occurred when previous Mideast wars loomed on the horizon. Some opined that the Likud leader will be named Defense Minister in place of Peretz, with his Labour party possibly being compensated by receiving the highly prized Foreign Ministry.
Ehud Olmert actually made some back channel approaches to his Likud nemesis to join a broad government last July. However the former Israeli prime minister said at the time that he preferred to remain as opposition leader in the Knesset while defending the Israeli government’s controversial war effort on the international media stage. In the end, Netanyahu earned many kudos and fresh respect from Israeli voters as a result of his tireless efforts, despite frequent harsh attacks upon his personal character from Kadima and other parties during the election campaign last March.
Adding to the sense of crisis inside top Israeli government circles, Attorney General Menachem Mazuz announced in late January that he will indict President Moshe Katsav on charges of rape and sexual harassment in cases brought up by several females who previously worked in his presidential entourage. Katsav angrily denounced the action, blaming his troubles on saturation media coverage of the women’s charges, while again insisting he is not guilty of committing any sexual crimes. The decision to indict renewed calls from many quarters for Katsav to immediately step down from his prominent post, but the country’s first Sephardic President refused to budge. However it was subsequently announced that Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik would be appointed Acting President while the indictment is being processed—the first female to ever assume the largely ceremonial position, even if temporarily.
RICE RETURNS
Another female featured prominently in the Israeli press during January;
this time a diplomat from the United States. Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice returned to the region mid-month, ostensively to try
and
jumpstart the frozen Israeli-Palestinian peace process. After meeting
in
Jerusalem with PM Olmert and other senior Israeli officials, and then
with
Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Mahmoud Abbas in nearby Ramallah, Rice
told a press conference that she had mainly come to listen to the two
sides, not to bring new American peace plans or proposals to resolve
the
decades-old conflict.
Dr. Rice’s fact-finding tour seemed just fine with Israeli officials—busy scrambling to prepare for the prospect of conflict this year with Syria, Hizbullah and Iran, along with the Palestinians, and also preoccupied with internal political instability. However Palestinian leaders publicly called for more aggressive American intervention to unthaw the frozen peace process, with former Oslo negotiator Saeb Erekat telling reporters that Abbas had asked Rice “to push ahead with final negotiations in back channels, in open channels, in secret channels, any way it can be achieved.”
Israeli officials responded to the Palestinian calls with serious skepticism, noting that Abbas and company are hardly any more ready than besieged Israeli leaders for intensive negotiations at present, given the deep divisions inside the Palestinian government between Abbas and his PLO Fatah party and the radical Islamic Hamas movement that took over most PA positions after wining Palestinian legislative elections early last year.
They said negotiations held under such conditions are almost destined to fail, adding more fuel to burgeoning regional jihad fires. Still, Rice announced plans to return to the region in February to try again to jumpstart the “land for peace” process.
IRAN IS THE TOPIC
Some Israeli analysts speculated that the real reason for Rice’s Middle
East visit—her third since October—was not the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict
at all, but Iran and Iraq. They noted that she was also holding
consultations with most of America’s closest Arab allies, including
Egypt,
Jordan and Saudi Arabia, in what many suspected was an attempt to drum
up
support for a possible US strike on Iran’s escalating nuclear uranium
enrichment program in the coming months. This contention seemed to be
buttressed by the announcement that a second US aircraft carrier and
accompany ships was on its way to the Persian Gulf, while over 20,000
additional American soldiers were being dispatched into mainly Shiite
areas
of Baghdad that might be expected to further erupt in violence in reaction
to any US military action against neighboring Iran.
The beefing up of American forces in the region came as the Bush White House announced that orders had been given to kill or capture Iranian Revolutionary Guard agents illegally operating in Iraq. After the order was denounced by Senate Majority leader Harry Reid and others as a probable prelude to a US attack on Iran, the President defended his order: “It makes sense that if somebody’s trying to harm our troops, or stop us achieving our goal, or killing innocent civilians in Iraq, that we will stop them,” he said on January 26. Senator Reid, from Nevada, replied that he and his newly empowered majority party would demand that the President “get congressional approval for any program that could escalate the conflict with Iran.”
President Bush insisted that American ground forces would not be allowed to pursue suspects into Iran itself. While declaring again that he would not allow the extremist Shiite mullahs that rule Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, he stated his continuing commitment to a diplomatic solution to the ongoing nuclear dispute. Noting that the hard-line regime in Tehran has shown absolutely no signs of giving up its openly stated ambition to carry on with its nuclear program despite United Nations economic sanctions imposed in December, Israeli Middle East analysts generally say that the time for diplomacy is rapidly coming to an end.
SYRIA HOSTS TALKS
The Baathist regime ruling in Damascus played host to unsuccessful
negotiations in January to try to end growing bloodshed between Hamas
and PLO gunmen in the PA zones of control. A scheduled meeting between
Mahmoud
Abbas and overall Hamas leader Khalid Mashaal, who is based in the Syrian
capital, was cancelled when the meeting agenda could not be agreed upon
by
the two sides. Abbas again threatened to hold new Palestinian legislative
elections in the coming months if Hamas does not agree to form a national
unity government with Fatah politicians. But Mashaal made clear that
his Sunni fundamentalist movement has no intention of heeding PLO calls
to
abandon its founding charter call for Israel’s total destruction,
along with demands for a complete end to the international peace process.
The failed negotiations in Damascus came as Palestinian militants fired more Kassams into Israel during the month, bringing to more than 100 rockets that have fallen since Abbas agreed to enforce a ceasefire in late November. Repeated attempts were made to strike Israel’s sprawling electric power plant just south of the coastal city of Ashkelon, which experts warn could spark off massive explosions in nearby giant oil tanks that fuel the plant.
The continuing rocket assaults prompted the Olmert government to approve a plan to fortify all Israeli homes and other buildings located within seven kilometers of the Gaza Strip. The so-called “Gaza Envelope” plan, formulated inside the Prime Minister’s office, will cost up to 900 million shekels (around US $200 million) to complete, say government officials. The first buildings to be reinforced will be schools and other educational institutions. However during a meeting with municipal officials serving in areas covered under the plan, Olmert warned that “nothing can insure a total halt to the firing of Kassam rockets into your communities.” The statement came despite ongoing military attempts to put together an anti-rocket defense system in the area, which is expected to be presented for government approval in the near future.
The Haaretz newspaper broke the news in mid-January that US-backed secret talks were held beginning in September 2004 between Syrian and Israeli representatives in an attempt to restart peace negotiations between the two adversaries. American-sponsored negotiations were broken off in early 2000 after the late Syrian dictator Hafez Assad demanded control over the northeastern shores of the Sea of Galilee, which was rejected as absurd by the government of Ehud Barak.
The informal exploratory talks, involving Israeli Foreign Ministry Director General Alon Liel and Syrian-American businessman Ibrahim Suleiman, were mediated by Switzerland; with the final round held during last year’s Israeli-Hizbullah conflict. Preliminary understandings were reportedly reached regarding a full Israeli withdrawal from the contested Golan Heights and the establishment of a demilitarized buffer zone between the two countries. However PM Olmert reportedly nixed the potential accord after Syria began to rearm Hizbullah forces following last summer’s conflict.
With fresh war clouds gathering in the region despite further talk of peace, it is more essential than ever to remember that the Prince of Peace holds the entire world in His mighty hands! It is the Lord himself who will comfort Zion, who will “comfort all of her waste places, and her wilderness He will make like Eden, and her desert like the garden of the Lord.” (Isaiah 51:3).
DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived and worked in Israel since 1980.
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