July 30, 2007
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SHALOM FROM JERUSALEM,
Below is my latest news and analysis report, covering important developments in Israel and the region during July. The main focus is the sudden burst of diplomatic activity in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, which has been basically frozen since the late Yasser Arafat launched his Al Aksa terror war nearly seven years ago. I also examine fresh talk of possible peace talks between Israel and Syria amid an ominous July meeting in Damascus between Iranian and Syrian leaders, which produced more verbal war threats from the same.
On that topic, many continue to write and ask me if I think it’s safe to travel to Israel in the coming weeks and months with the possibility of yet another armed conflict. I can only say that the God of Israel alone knows exactly what will be. We are certainly in a period of higher tensions than normal with Syria, Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas, but again no one can say where or when this will lead to conflict.
I DID warn of last summer’s war with Hizbullah in the months before it broke out, as some of you who heard me speak in the States and UK can testify, saying my intelligence sources were telling me that Israel could not put up with the Hizbullah threat any longer, and would probably take the next major Hizbullah provocation as an opportunity to deal with the threat. This year, my sources are mixed on their opinions as to whether or not we might see conflict. It is certainly more likely than usual, but again, only God knows. So each person needs to decide the issue for themselves. For me, I still feel safer in Jerusalem than in many of the cities I travel in abroad.
I wish to note the passing earlier this month of George Otis Sr. who
founded the Voice of Hope radio ministry that I worked for in southern
Lebanon in the early 1980s. He was always full of energy and a real pioneer
in a part of the world that needs that type of person to get things accomplished.
I continued to periodically see George and his lovely wife Virginia over
the years, sometimes here in Israel and often while speaking at conferences
sponsored by his High Adventure ministry. I also worked in Lebanon with
his second son Don, who later acted as the book agent for my novel, the
End of Days. I will be writing a tribute to George for the Assist News
Service based in southern California, to be published on their web site
soon.
TALK OF PEACE AND WAR
By David Dolan
Urged on by the international community, Israeli government leaders forged
ahead with attempts to restart the long moribund peace process with the
Palestinians during July, or at least with the Fatah movement that rules
portions of Judea and Samaria but remains powerless over the million
and a half Arabs residing in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip.
Several hundred Palestinian prisoners serving in Israeli jails were set free as a “goodwill gesture” to shore up Fatah rule. This came as overall Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas stepped up efforts to woo international backing for his new Fatah dominated government while also increasing security cooperation with Israel.
Senior veteran politicians from Israel, the United States, the EU and the UK joined Abbas in speaking of a “new dawn” for the long frozen Israeli-Palestinian peace process during July, with predictions from some of a final peace accord within one year. The statements, followed by a flurry of diplomatic activity not seen here in many years, came in the wake of a declaration by US President George Bush that a new international Middle East peace conference would be held later this year, chaired by American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice—who said in July that “Israel must end its occupation of the West Bank.” The conference would include “all countries that support a two state solution, reject violence, and support Israel’s right to exist.”
However Hamas remained brazenly defiant, while lobbing fresh rocket volleys into Israel, saying it will fiercely resist any new peace attempts and strive to widen its influence inside Jordan’s former West Bank. Strong opposition to the renewed peace efforts—pushed along by Bush and by newly appointed Quartet Mideast envoy Tony Blair—was also voiced by Iranian and Syrian leaders, who again threatened imminent war against Israel during a mid-July meeting in Damascus. The bellicose statements, echoed by the Hizbullah militia, Islamic Jihad, and Al Qaida leaders, along with continuing chaos in Iraq, reminded all Israelis that the regional conflict is hardly over, despite renewed international peace efforts.
ROSY FUTURE OR ROSE COLORED GLASSES?
President Bush outlined his latest thinking about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and prospects for peace during a major policy speech he delivered on July 16th. The US leader began by noting that five years ago he became “the first American president to call for the creation of a Palestinian state.” He then listed some of the “positive developments” since then that might contribute to achieving his goal of “a democratic Palestine living side by side with Israel,” including Ariel Sharon’s 2005 Gaza withdrawal and the holding of “free elections” by the Palestinians in January 2006. Of course, those elections brought the radical Hamas movement to power—a fact he failed to mention. The Gaza withdrawal also paved the way for the Hamas takeover of the crowded coastal zone in June, causing many Israelis to tell pollsters they now regret their earlier support for Sharon’s unilateral and very controversial action.
Bush then listed several “negative occurrences” that have thwarted peace efforts since he outlined his two state peace solution in June 2003. “Hamas radicals betrayed the Palestinian people with a lawless and violent takeover of Gaza,” he especially noted, again failing to point out that the Islamic movement had become empowered to do so precisely because they triumphed in White House and State Department-advocated “free elections” the previous year.
The American leader stated that the Palestinians were at a “crucial and historic crossroads” where they could “choose the vision of Hamas” leading to “chaos, suffering and the endless perpetuation of grievance” or “the vision of President Abbas and new Prime Minister Fayyad…of a peaceful state called Palestine as a homeland for the Palestinian people.”
To insure that the Palestinians chose the US-backed option, Bush then outlined three measures he would take to insure a PLO Fatah triumph in the struggle with Hamas and its “foreign sponsors Syria and Iran.” Foremost among then, he said the American government will “strengthen our financial commitment” to Abbas, including an immediate infusion of 80 million dollars to shore up PLO-run security services (currently totally inoperative in the Gaza Strip). This came as Israel announced it would allow more weapons to be imported from Jordan for the Fatah-led force, which analysts note has had a mixed record in fighting Palestinian terror groups over the years, and has indeed sided with such groups on several occasions in clashes with Israeli troops.
President Bush next pledged to “strengthen our political and diplomatic commitment” to the Abbas-Fayyad government, particularly by backing further regular meetings between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Abbas. He said his final measure to help resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would be a “strengthened commitment to help build the institutions of a Palestinian state.” He maintained that this would primarily be done via the new Quartet ambassador Tony Blair, who he said would “coordinate international efforts to help the Palestinians establish the institutions of a strong and lasting free society including effective governing structures, a sound financial system and the rule of law.” Indeed, Blair made his first visit to the region to do just that in late July.
Finally, Bush gave further details about the international conference that he plans to convene under Secretary of State Rice, probably in October. He said participants would “review progress made toward building Palestinian institutions, and look for innovative and effective ways to support further reform.” However the US leader did not state, or even hint, that the conference might lead to any final peace accord between the Palestinians and Israel.
MIXED REACTIONS
Most of the regional reactions to the Bush policy speech were quite predictable. Israeli leaders naturally welcomed the words from the leader of their closest ally, although some officials reportedly were quite skeptical that enough progress would be made to warrant an international conference this coming autumn. Newly installed Israeli President Shimon Peres, who won a Nobel Peace Prize in 1994 for helping engineer the shattered Oslo peace process, hailed the speech as a breath of fresh air.
However former Israeli cabinet minister Tommy Lapid joined many commentators in saying that the American leader, Peres and PM Olmert were “entirely naïve” in stating that a final Israeli-Palestinian peace accord was achievable while groups like Hamas continued to lead a popular fight against peace. Lapid, the former Shinui party leader, noted that the US-backed Israeli peace accords with Egypt and Jordan were only maintained against “strong public opposition in those Arab countries by powerful and repressive regimes” that brooked no serious opposition; something that should obviously not be expected from featherweights Abbas and Fayyad, especially in light of the total routing of Fatah forces in Gaza.
Many veteran political analysts, such as Jerusalem Post senior editor David Horovitz, said the renewed, nearly frantic, peace moves were not at all due to some dramatic change in the situation on the ground, which if anything has become more complicated and dangerous with the Hamas takeover of Gaza. Instead it had much more to do with Bush’s growing problems in Iraq, the threat of imminent conflict with Syria and Iran, and Olmert’s need for some good news with the final Winograd Lebanon War report pending—expected to harshly condemn his handling of the 2006 conflict. Indeed, the State Comptroller released a 582 page report on July 18th that blasted Olmert and other senior officials for “severe failures” in the “home front” during the war.
Mahmoud Abbas welcomed Bush’s pledge of increased American political support and stepped up financial aid while trying to keep some distance between Washington and his new PA administration. The Fatah chief is well aware that his new government, which has yet to win supposedly necessary approval from the Hamas-dominated Palestinian Legislative Council, is already being labeled as an American puppet by many Palestinians, including some Fatah supporters.
As expected, Hamas and its allies harshly condemned the Bush policy speech. Gaza spokesman Sami Abu Zuchri said the White House call for the establishment of a Palestinian state was nothing more than “a mere lie” designed to “deceive world public opinion and Palestinian opinion in particular.” He added that Hamas “will never recognize Israeli occupation of Palestine and foreswear legitimate resistance to it” (i.e. terrorism). He further vowed that Hamas will “abort all US-Israeli conspiracies against the Palestinian people” and urged the entire Muslim world to “wake up” and support Hamas in its efforts to “defeat the Bush crusade against us.”
The Hizbullah movement in Lebanon—holding special ceremonies to mark its self declared “victory over the Zionist entity’s forces” during last year’s Lebanon war—issued a statement denouncing the American President’s speech and pledging full support for Hamas in its “struggle to liberate all of Palestine.” This came as Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah boasted that his rogue force now possesses, and is ready to use, missiles that can reach “every part of occupied Palestine, not just the north.” This contention was actually already stated by Israeli Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz earlier this year, who warned that the radical Shiite group had become fully equipped to launch another round of rocket assaults even more destructive than last year’s 34 day blitz.
PEACE WITH SYRIA?
Of far more concern to Israeli leaders were the reactions that came from Iran and Syria. The Damascus-based Hamas leadership joined its Gaza brethren in totally condemning the Bush policy speech, to no one’s surprise. Apparently trying to gain a little financial help itself from Washington, or at least forestall what it claims are Israeli plans to launch a preemptive military strike, the Assad regime did not condemn the speech. In fact, Bush’s remarks closely followed on the heels of a mid-July “reelection victory speech” by Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, who of course ran unopposed, in which he stated his readiness for peace with Israel after confirming earlier press reports that backchannel talks were already underway. Officials in Jerusalem later confirmed his revelation, indicating that clandestine talks, said to be mediated by Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, had made some progress.
Although PM Olmert officially welcomed Assad’s comments, and again invited the Syrian strongman to come to Jerusalem, as the late Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat had done before the Camp David accords were signed in 1979, he expressed concern over Syria’s preconditions for peace. Assad had stated that Israel must give “a written guarantee” at the start of any formal negotiations that Syria would receive the entire Golan Heights back after an accord was ratified. Syria considers the area to include the northeast shore of the Sea of Galilee, which Israel’s hostile neighbor only captured in skirmishes with IDF forces between 1948 and 1967.
“ Why bother to negotiate at all if the solution to the thorniest issue is already dictated by one of the sides?” one Israeli Foreign Ministry official asked rhetorically.
Assad also stated that any talks must be held publicly and with foreign mediation, which is less bothersome to Israeli officials, although they well recall that the current dictator’s late father, Hafez Assad, frequently used such US-mediated negotiations in the 1990’s to issue rancorous statements against Israel.
Israeli political analysts were divided on their advice as to how Olmert should respond to the Syrian leader’s verbal overture. Some saw it as a legitimate opportunity to possibly avoid a destructive war with Damascus and weaken Iranian influence in the region. However most termed it a clever Syrian ploy to secure more financial and military aid from Tehran, and possibly from the Kremlin as well, which has been displaying an increasingly anti-American and anti-British worldview in recent months.
AXIS OF EVIL
If Bashar Assad was mainly trying to scare his chief Mideast ally into stepping up its support, the ploy apparently immediately worked. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rushed off to Damascus just two days after Assad spoke, reportedly pledging to give Syria an immediate one billion dollars in military aid if it promises to stay away from peace talks with Israel and continue its active support for Hamas against Fatah. Officials in Tehran denied that such a financial pledge had been made, and many Israeli analysts doubted the huge sum that was first published in a London-based Saudi-owned newspaper.
The report claimed most of the money would go toward the purchase of Russian fighter jets, tanks and helicopters, while Iran would also help Syria build a new missile plant and step up aid for its chemical weapons program, and even share some nuclear secrets with Damascus. Israeli officials say that generous Iranian financial aid in recent years has allowed Damascus to purchase Russian anti-tank rockets (some of which were smuggled into Hizbullah hands in Lebanon), anti-aircraft missile systems and other technologically advanced weapons, beginning in early 2005.
Still, many analysts said that the newly strengthened Syria-Iranian alliance that was spoken of by both Assad and Ahmadinejad during their July 19 meeting was undoubtedly a reality, with fresh supplies of Iranian money heading for Damascus, whatever the amount. They noted with special concern the post-summit statement by the rogue Iranian President that “Iran and Syria are united against our common enemies,” adding ominously that “This summer we will see victory for our region’s peoples, and defeat for our enemies.” After reportedly meeting secretly with Hizbullah’s Nasrallah during his stay in Damascus, Ahmadinejad added that “the Lebanese nation can thwart any plot through unity, solidarity and resistance.”
Several foreign and Israeli Middle East analysts said the hostile Iranian statements are undoubtedly part of Tehran’s attempts to head off possible Israeli and/or American military action against the country’s UN-censored nuclear program. The Shiite regime wants Israeli leaders to understand that they will be struck by a massive barrage of missiles—some probably carrying chemical warheads—if an assault on Iran’s nuclear program takes place. The attacks would be simultaneously launched from Syria, Lebanon, Iran itself and from the Gaza Strip, where Israeli officials say Hamas is receiving Iranian assistance to vastly increase the range and firepower of its Kassam rockets, making them capable of striking the coastal cities of Ashkelon (as occurred in July), the vital port of Ashdod, and Beersheba, the country’s fourth largest urban area.
PRISONERS SET FREE
In his effort to strengthen the new Palestinian government, PM Olmert asked his cabinet in July to approve the immediate release of hundreds of Palestinians being held in Israeli jails, as long demanded by PA leaders. On Friday June 20th, 255 Palestinians were set free, including six women. Most were members of Fatah-linked terror groups, but none were said to be directly responsible to the deaths of any Israelis. Still, several Israeli groups and individuals petitioned the High Court to forbid the release, but the requests were all turned down.
Olmert also announced that he will allow the head of the Damascus-based Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Naif Hawatmeh, to “visit Ramallah for a few days” in order to help his longtime friend Mahmoud Abbas “solidify his new government and the rule of law in the West Bank.” This produced howls of protest from many Israelis, including Transport Minister Mofaz. All noted that Hawatmeh’s group, under his direct orders, carried out one of the most heinous terror attacks in Israeli history—the 1974 assault on a school in the northern town of Ma’alot, which left 22 children dead along with two teachers. Mofaz said that if the “mass murderer” wants to strengthen Abbas, the latter should go visit him in Damascus. Meanwhile many Palestinian groups and politicians, including several Fatah leader, strongly condemned the invitation, saying it was merely part of a “US-Israeli conspiracy to divide and conquer” the Palestinian people, as one Fatah-linked web site put it.
Despite renewed talk of peace with the Palestinian Authority, a senior IDF general told an Israeli newspaper in July that a major new military offensive may be necessary in the Gaza Strip very soon. He was quoted as saying Hamas rulers there had smuggled in an incredible 20 tons of explosives and weapons from the “porous border with Egypt” in just one recent month alone. He said the radical group had now acquired the same anti-tank rockets that Syria gave Hizbullah to use in last summer’s Lebanon war—which killed dozens of IDF soldiers, along with new anti-aircraft missiles.
Amid the furious flurry of “peace” activity in July, Israeli political and military analysts noted that the threat of regional war remains very real. W hile some are quite hopeful over the energized peace efforts, many recall that the Soviet Union was prone to talk the loudest about “peace” just prior to launching military assaults. The need clearly remains to keep vigilant in prayer as the coming weeks unfold, even though we know that God will eventually fulfill His many marvelous promises to Israel, including this one: “I bring near My righteousness, it is not far off, and my salvation will not delay. And I will grant salvation in Zion and My glory for Israel. (Isaiah 46:13)
DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived
and worked in Israel since 1980.
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