Report Date:
=================
November 07, 2007
Shalom from America,
I am currently in the middle of my US speaking tour. It has been great seeing some of you along the way so far, and I hope to see others as I journey to Colorado, the Chicago area, Albany New York and southern Florida before returning to Israel in early December. My full schedule can be found on my website, www.ddolan.com
I apologize that you did not get the October news report when it was first sent out early last week (and a couple times since then) for technical reasons. It is posted below. It covers important news from Israel and the Middle East during October. It features the continuing tensions between Israel and Syria amid growing reports that the White House is preparing to launch military action against Iran's nuclear program. Stay tuned for more interesting developments ahead! ISRAEL DESTROYS SYRIAN REACTOR Reverberations from Israel 's September air strike against a Syrian nuclear facility continued to rocket around the tumultuous Middle East during October, with Israeli armed forces on full alert in case Damascus orders a delayed military response. Meanwhile a partial lifting of media censorship finally allowed the publication in Israel of the fact that a daring operation had indeed been carried out, which analysts say has at least partially restored Israel 's deterrence credibility--severely eroded during the 2006 inconclusive conflict with Lebanese Hizbullah militia forces. While Israeli leaders kept one eye glued on the tense northern border, American diplomatic efforts to resolve the long and bitter Israeli-Palestinian conflict continued apace. Negotiations reached aserious snag when the Palestinians demanded that Israel agree to iron out full details of a finalstatus peace accord before a planned international conference is held later this year outside Washington D.C.
Fresh revelations of just how far Prime Minister Ehud Olmert appears to be willing to go in order to sign a final treaty with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas rocked the Israeli political establishment during the month. Several members of Olmert's own Kadima party again threatened to bolt his coalition if the unpopular Premier actually agrees to abandon portions of Jerusalem to Palestinian control, as media reports indicated he is now fully prepared to do.
NUCLEAR SYRIA
Senior Bush administration officials confirmed widespread media reports that Israeli jets had bombed and apparently destroyed a Syrian nuclear-linked target in the country's eastern desert in the early hours of September 6. The Washington Post was among several newspapers that quoted unnamed White House and Defense Department officials saying the target was no less than a nuclear reactor under construction there. The American ABC network reported that a mole operating in the area had taken secret detailed photographs of the inside of the targeted building site, confirming that it was a reactor being constructed along the lines necessary to provide enough material to eventually produce a nuclear bomb.
A Syrian official stationed at United Nations headquarters in New York later confirmed for the first time that the target was indeed some sort of nuclear facility under construction. Earlier, Syrian leaders, including Dictator Bashar Assad, had claimed that the targeted structure was either an agricultural building or an abandoned army base. Speaking before the UN's Disarmament Commission, the Syrian diplomat termed the daring Israeli operation "an act of aggression."
The Post report said that U.S. leaders had known about the construction activity for some time, but had not shared that information immediately with their Israeli counterparts. It added that the Damascus-based Assad regime is seemingly now scrambling to erase all evidence on the ground that a nuclear reactor was being built in the dry eastern desert, not far from the border with Iraq .
American officials quoted in the report said the intensive efforts to clean up the site are probably designed to make it impossible for international inspectors to confirm that an atomic reactor was actually under construction, and whether or not it was being built with nuclear weapons ultimately in mind. The report said air surveillance pictures taken by American and Israeli spy satellites and jets had revealed that the site was probably a small but significant nuclear reactor.
Experts said the reactor had similar features to several others located in North Korea . They added that the isolated Communist regime had probably sold architectural plans for the nuclear facility to Syria, with North Korean engineers overseeing the actual construction process, as several international media outlets reported in September. Some reports said North Korean experts were killed in the dramatic air strike. Other reports claimed that Russian weapons advisors had been killed when Israeli Air Force pilots also bombed recently delivered Russian anti-aircraft missile batteries that were locking onto their jets.
WARNING TO IRAN ?
American officials told the Washington Post that the White House had agreed with Israeli leaders that urgent military action was called for to halt the nuclear construction process. The State Department's reported contention that the issue should first be raised with the United Nation's International Atomic Energy Agency before an air operation was launched was overruled by the White House, which was said to concur with Israeli officials that suchamove would only give diplomatic cover for the Syrian regime to continue rapid construction activity, as limited UN sanctions have apparently done for Iran.
As before, Israeli officials refused to confirm or deny the American news reports, even though strict military censorship upon the Israeli media and foreign journalists stationed in the country was partially lifted in late September. That at least permitted full publication for the first time of the widely known fact that a major air operation had been successfully carried out by highly trained Israeli Air Force pilots earlier in the month.
Israeli officials again indicated that the censorship restrictions were basically enacted in order to lessen the chances that humiliated Syrian leaders would order a retribution military operation, if not launch an all-out war.
Pointing out that the Syrians are already known to possess a small nuclear reactor for supposedly research purposes only, the Post article said Israeli and American officials believed that the bombed facility was more clearly designed to produce weapon'sgrade material. It added that U.S. government leaders remain divided as to whether or not the reactor posed an imminent threat to Israel , or to American forces stationed in the region.
NIPPED IN THE BUD
A Syrian nuclear reactor that could potentially help produce future atomic weapons to be used against the small Jewish state was obviously not something that the Israeli government was willing to suffer very long. Still most Israeli security analysts believe that the daring IAF attack was also carried out soon after Israel confirmed that the building project had a nuclear connection in order to send a loud and clear warning to Syria's main regional ally, Iran: Your own openly declared nuclear program may be subjected to Israeli military action if it is not soon halted voluntarily.
Analysts noted that the air strike against Syria 's nascent reactor came just days before Iranian leader Mahmoud Amadinajed was scheduled to speak at United Nation's headquarters in New York , where he again defiantly declared that his rogue regime will not bow to growing international pressure and sanctions to halt its controversial "nuclear energy" program. Several weeks later, Iranian Brigadier General Mahmoud Chaharbaghi, who commands the country's elite Revolutionary Guard forces, claimed that his country "has 11,000 rockets and heavy cannons aimed at enemy forces" in the region, apparently meaning American and Israeli targets.
Israeli media reports said that PM Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak (who personally planned and oversaw the successful bombing operation) hope that the bold Israeli Air Force action will help persuade Shiite extremists ruling Tehran to shut down or at least freeze their nuclear program, which all Israeli officials strongly contend is largely designed for military purposes, and not to increase electricity supplies as Ahmadinejad and other Iranian officials contend.
Speculation that some sort of military strike against Iran 's nuclear sites could be imminent grew after Barak warned the Israeli public in late October to prepare materials to seal off security rooms designed to withstand a potential chemical or biological weapons attack. Such "sealed rooms" were standard fare in Israel the first week of the war in Iraq in March 2003, and even more so during Saddam's Scud missile blitz in early 1991.
For the first time since the 2006 war, Lebanese gunners fired upon Israeli military jets flying over south Lebanon on October 24 without causing any damage. The action heightened concerns that some sort of Hizbullah attack against Israel could be pending, probably aided by Syria . The incident came just hours before the UN released a formal report stating that the Lebanese Shiite militia had not only fully rearmed following its war with Israel last year, but has actually "increased the capacity" it had at the beginning of that conflict. UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon termed the report "deeply disconcerting." The UN openly stated that most of Hizbullah's new weapons flow is coming via Syria , financed largely by Iran.
OLMERT VISITS THE KREMLIN
Prime Minister Olmert made a lightning trip to Moscow in mid-October to hold urgent talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had just returned from a state visit to Iran . Senior Israeli leaders were upset when the increasingly autocratic Putin stated his opposition to slapping further UN economic sanctions on Tehran , contending that there is "no need" for them since there is no evidence that Iran possesses, or intends to produce, nuclear weapons. The Russian leader added that he would oppose any international military action to curb Iran 's nuclear program, which Iranian leaders insist is strictly for energy purposes. Most Western leaders have stated directly or indirectly that they believe the Shiite state is mainly enriching uranium in order to produce nuclear bombs.
In his public remarks, Olmert did not directly blast the statements made by Putin while visiting Iran. However the PM did state that Russia could "help stabilize the Middle East by giving due weight to Israel 's security interests." In other words, Russia 's actions of late--especially its military anti-tank and aircraft missile sales to Syria , and material support for Iran 's nuclear program--are helping to produce further instability in the region, which can only lead to more violence and conflict ahead. An Israeli Defense Ministry official accompanying Olmert in Moscow told reporters that there has been a "significant retreat in Russian support for continuing diplomatic activity to impose sanctions on Iran via the UN Security Council." The international body is scheduled to discuss the issue again in November.
Meanwhile Israeli military analysts reported that the Olmert government is increasingly considering a unilateral military option for dealing with the existential threat that Iranian nuclear bombs would pose to the small state of Israel . Some opined that the air strike on Syria's nuclear reactor was partially meant to send a strong signal that similar action against Iran may be pending, even if all agree it would be a far more difficult undertaking than the September operation against the new Syrian reactor was--targeting several dozen positions instead of just one, all located much further away from Israel's borders.
Senior American officials said again during October that the world' current superpower would not allow Iran to possess such deadly weapons. During a press conference mid-month, President George Bush repeated earlier statements that everything possible would be done to halt the program diplomatically, but if that fails, "all options" would be on the table. Vice President Dick Cheney echoed the Commander-in-Chief later in the month, saying in a speech before the Washington Institute for Near East Studies that the Iranian regime "continues to practice delay and deceit in an obvious effort to buy time." He said Iranian leaders were openly pursuing technology that would allow them to build nuclear weapons, adding that "our country and the entire international community cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills its grandest ambitions." Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice supported this position during the month, saying that the Shiite Iranian regime was "simply lying" when it maintains that its uranium enrichment program is for peaceful purposes only.
RICE RETURNS AMID NEGOTIATING STALEMATE
Americas senior diplomat returned to the turbulent Middle East yet again during October, obstensively to further along the recently revived Israeli-Palestinian peace process. This came as puzzled Israeli analysts noted yet again that the current realities do not at all give any indication that a final peace treaty is even remotely achievable in the current political climate. They note that the Israeli scene is dominated by an Israeli premier whose popularity ratings remain at record lows. On the other side, the Palestinians are ruled by a weak PLO leader who lost control over one-third of his people and territory to the radical Islamic Hamas movement last June. Some analysts speculated again that the Secretary of State's frequent visits to the region this year probably have more to do with preparing the diplomatic ground for an American military assault on Iran's nuclear program than with the sludge-filled Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
State Department officials traveling with Rice told reporters at the end of her latest Mideast tour--which as usual included stops in key U.S. allies in the Gulf region--that Olmert and Abbas had agreed to issue a "joint declaration" at a planned peace conference to be held in the United States later this year. They said the declaration would "address all core issues and point to certain avenues to be pursued through negotiations." Proving once more how difficult it will be to reach a final peace accord in the near future, Palestinian officials publicly disputed the claim that they would be satisfied by such a declaration at this time. Instead, they threatened again to boycott the announced Israeli-Palestinian peace conference currently planned to be held near Washington DC in either late November or early December.
Abbas and company basically demand a complete and final detailed settlement of all outstanding issues dividing the two sides before the conference gets underway, a position that Israel strongly rejects. "We won't go to the conference unless we reach an agreement beforehand with Israel on the final status issues and a clear timetable for implementation of any agreement between the two parties" said chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat on Oct 23.
The following day, Defense Minister Barak indicated that he was planning to implement the cabinet's earlier authorization to cut off fuel, electricity and other supplies to the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. Barak's reported decision came after a heavy barrage of Palestinian Kassam rockets were launched into Israeli communities the third week of October.
OLMERT CAN'T DO IT
Palestinian leaders are upset with Ehud Olmert's continuing refusal to commit to a final peace process timetable at the planned international parley. PLO leaders want the conference to focus on producing a fixed timetable that would spell out exactly how much Israeli-held disputed territory would be transferred to Palestinian control and when, along with precisely when full independent statehood would be granted.
Aware of how shaky his government coalition is, and how extremely unpopular a total surrender of most portions of Judea and Samaria is with a large majority of the Israeli electorate, PM Olmert insists that a more general peace conference goal is more appropriate, or at least realistic, at this stage. Instead of a detailing a final accord, he wants both sides to recommit to fully implement the Road Map peace plan put forward by the White House in 2003. In its first phase, it calls for a total Israeli settlement expansion freeze and a complete halt to all Palestinian terror attacks, followed later on by negotiations for a final status peace accord. Just after her latest trip to Jerusalem , Rice confirmed that the American government fully supports Olmert's insistence that both sides pledge to carry out the first phase of the Road Map plan before final status issues are resolved.
Speaking before a Congressional committee in Washington late in the month, the Secretary of State warned the so-called "two-state solution" might collapse as an option if the current peace push does not bear fruit. She said the international conference to be held in Annapolis, Maryland before the end of this year "is needed to give hope to moderate Palestinian leaders" and provide them with "a horizon they can show to their people that indeed there is a possible two state solution." Rice added that the Bush administration will ask Congress to provide more than $400 million in financial aid to the Palestinian Authority headed by Abbas. She blamed Iran for fanning the flames of conflict in the region, especially by providing what she termed "troubling new support" for Hamas militants working to destroy Israel .
Revelations by Deputy Premier Haim Ramon that Olmert is prepared to cede control to the PA over mostly Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem continued to shake the Israeli political establishment during October, even though he also implied this could be part of a deal to cement Israeli control over three large settlement blocks located north and south of Israel's capital city. Opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu blasted the proposal on several occasions, saying any portion of Jerusalem abandoned to PA control would most likely become part of the capital of an Islamic fundamentalist Palestinian state that would threaten Israel 's very existence. Olmert;s office continued to deny that the Premier is effectively prepared to re-divide the holy city, which came under full Israeli control when the area was captured from Jordan in 1967.
Meanwhile the Palestinian daily Al Quds newspaper published in London reported in early October that Olmert had reached an understanding with Abbas to transfer control to Jordan over the most important real estate located in Jerusalem, if not in the entire world--the hallowed Temple Mount.
The paper said some 90,000 Arab residents of eastern Jerusalem would receive Jordanian citizenship as part of the deal. The story came as former Tourism Minister Benny Elon resurrected a plan that was once the staple of the nationalist Likud party, which Netanyahu now heads. He called for all Palestinians living in Jordan 's former West Bank to be granted full Jordanian citizenship, with Israel gaining official sovereignty over those portions of the area where Israeli Jews reside today. The plan was immediately rejected by Israeli government leaders and was strongly denounced by the Palestinians.
FEAR NO EVIL Palestinian terrorists brutally murdered the head of the Gaza Strip Bible Society in early October. Rami Ayyad, 31, was the father of two children, with a third on the way. His mutilated body, which had been repeatedly stabbed and his skull crushed, was found in Gaza City, where he ran a Christian bookshop that had come under earlier attack from Muslim radicals. They vow to drive out or kill all Arab Christians who refuse to immediately convert to Islam.
Later in the month, arsonists set a church on fire in Jerusalem , but did little damage. The original Narkiss Street Baptist Church building was destroyed in a raging fire in the early 1980s by suspected Orthodox Jewish arsonists. Fire officials said the recent blaze was set in three locations by arsonists who broke into the Christian facility during the night of October 23. The church premises are currently used by several congregations,
including one large Messianic group that meets there on Saturday evenings. With violence of all kinds gripping the troubled Middle East and indeed the entire world, it is so good to proclaim that "The Lord reigns, He is clothed with majesty! The Lord has clothed and girded Himself with strength; indeed the world is firmly established, it will not be moved." (Psalm 93:1)
DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived and worked in Israel since 1980.
November 26, 2007
=================
Shalom from Florida!
I am in the final week of my US speaking tour, preparing to return to
Jerusalem in December. Meetings scheduled for this week and next
weekend on the west coast of the Sunshine state and in the Fort Lauderdale
area are listed on my web site, www.ddolan.com
My DVD, FOR ZION’S SAKE, will be broadcast again this coming weekend
on the Sky Angel Two satellite network. It covers Israel's ancient
and modern history, and also contains portions of Hebrew music songs
that I recorded in Israel with Barry and Batya Segal and others. It will
be screened on Sunday, December 2 at 9:30 PM EST, which is 6:30 PM in
the west.
Below is this month’s Israel news and analysis report, covering
this weeks Israeli-Palestinian summit near Washington DC, and important
new security developments. Israel remains on an extra high military alert
due to ongoing tensions with Hamas, Syria and Hizbullah and
Iran, which I detail in the report.
NOVEMBER 2007 ISRAEL NEWS REVIEW
Jerusalem • 11/25/2007
PEACE SUMMIT IN AMERICA
As final preparations were made for the Israeli-Palestinian peace parlay
to be convened just outside of Washington DC, indications were rife
that the short conference would prove to be a huge disappointment, if
not a total bust, for its US sponsors. Senior Palestinian and Israeli
officials voiced deep skepticism that the ballyhooed international gathering
would do anything more than give the two sides a new platform
from which to spell out their extremely divergent visions of what a final
peace accord should look like.
Disputes over the text of a joint Israeli-Palestinian “common declaration” remained
unsettled up to the final deadline, along with the list of who exactly
would even attend the conference. The joint declaration is supposed to
serve as a basic guideline for future peace negotiations.
Analysts said the failure to agree on its wording after months of give
and take between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators amply illustrated
how difficult it will be to make any real progress on the final status
issues.
American officials expressed satisfaction that steady State Department
pressure upon Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries had convinced
them to send delegations to the summit. Still they were embarrassed when
a senior Saudi official said Arab participants would not even
shake hands with Israeli leaders at the conference. Syria’s last
minute decision to send its deputy foreign minister was welcomed by both
Israeli and US officials, although discussions about the disputed Golan
Heights are not expected during the short international gathering.
Many continue to speculate that the real reason for the series of high
level American government visits to the turbulent region this year,
especially by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, has precious little
to do with a non-existent final peace accord between Israel and her Palestinian
antagonists, but far more to do with probably imminent US military action
to halt Iran’s headlong rush to acquiring nuclear
weapons. They say that until the Iranian-Syrian-Hizbullah-Hamas doomsday
threat to Israel’s very existence is fully and finally dealt with,
talk
of a final status Israeli-Palestinian peace accord remains utopic at
best.
FANTASY LAND
Just one week before the scheduled start of the long heralded Israeli-Palestinian
peace conference at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis Maryland, just
outside of Washington DC, the actual dates for the event were still not
even settled, let alone any concrete details of what was expected of
the White House sponsored international gathering. Although the summit
dates were finally announced just before the American holiday of Thanksgiving—November
27 and 28—savvy Israeli and Arab pundits continued to scratch their
heads over the seemingly Alice in Wonderland timing of the Bush Administration’s
controversial peace push that is supposedly designed to bring a final
end to the long and
bitter Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is under scrutiny by several official
police investigations over alleged criminal activity (yet another probe
was begun in November). This has contributed to his fall to unparalleled
low levels in Israeli popular opinion polls this year. Experts say Olmert’s
legal problems do not exactly add to the stable political environment
that all agree is necessary to secure widespread public and legislative
support for any controversial final peace deal, especially since an accord
will undoubtedly involve the uprooting of tens of thousands of Jews
from their homes.
The Prime Minister’s political woes were compounded during the
month by the lukewarm support for the American summit that he received
from his chief government partner, Defense Minister Ehud Barak. The Labor
party leader, whose continuation in Olmert’s coalition government
is essential if it is to survive, expressed strong misgivings over the
US-sponsored summit. Barak warned that regional tensions might only be
exacerbated by a failed or stalemated gathering; a sentiment echoed by
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and other Middle East leaders.
Political commentators also note that Olmert’s Palestinian counterpart,
Mahmoud Abbas, is still reeling from the Hamas coup that ousted the Palestinian
Authority from the Gaza Strip last June. Fears are growing that the militant
Muslim group may soon attempt to wrest power from
Abbas in Judea and Samaria. The violent Hamas seizure of the Gaza Strip
alone seems to make this the absolutely least likely time to pursue
a final peace accord, say many bewildered analysts. On the eve of the
summit, Hamas warned Abbas not to make any concessions to either
Israeli or American leaders.
Just before he departed for the United States, PM Olmert again defended
his decision to participate in the international parlay despite huge
problems at home (a prolonged teachers strike for one thing, which has
left hundreds of thousands of Israeli students at home for many weeks
and their frustrated parents at wits end). He told reporters in Jerusalem
that “the status quo with the Palestinians simply cannot continue.” He
opined that the political stalemate that followed the collapse of the
Oslo peace accords in the year 2000 “will lead to results that
are much
worse than a failed conference.”
However Israeli opposition politicians and political analysts largely
agree that maintaining the status quo under the present political circumstances,
while indeed not entirely satisfactory, is still much better than a failed
summit that has the large potential of sparking off
another round of major Palestinian street violence, if not another Middle
East war.
Peace conference skeptics noted that the official Palestinian position
on what should constitute a final status accord actually stiffened in
the
run-up to the Annapolis summit, with Palestinian leaders announcing they
will never recognize Israel as a Jewish state. The hard-line
Palestinian position was later endorsed by an Israeli-Arab political
movement that includes the three Arab parties with seats in the Israeli
Knesset.
The announcements seemed to indicate that both the Palestinians and legislators representing over one million Arab citizens of Israel plan to cling to the traditional PLO demand that several million Palestinians living elsewhere, especially in Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, be allowed to move to ancestral family locations inside of today’s Israeli borders. Jewish Israeli politicians from left and right agree that this would ultimately lead to Arabs forming a majority in their democratic state, effectively destroying its Jewish character from within.
WAR CLOUDS STILL GATHERING
While the Middle East media was overflowing during November with conflicting reports about the vapid summit, military tensions remained extremely high between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas group, and also in the north with both Syria and the Lebanese Hizbullah militia.
Near the Gaza Strip, Israeli Defense forces were beefed up in anticipation
of a possible major operation into the Hamas-ruled coastal zone, designed
to halt continuing Palestinian rocket attacks upon Israeli communities
in the area. Meanwhile the Israeli government allowed the resumption
of some agricultural shipments to European markets from the area, which
were halted when the radical Muslim group seized
power in a violent coup against the Palestinian Authority last June.
However at the same time, the government announced that Israeli generated electricity supplies to the zone would be gradually cut back beginning in early December, in response to the ongoing firing of Palestinian Kassam rockets into nearby Israeli population centers, especially into the battered town of Sderot. This came as Israeli Arab leaders joined their Palestinian cousins in declaring that they would never recognize Israel as a Jewish state.
NUCLEAR CLOUDS?
Full security alerts were called several times during the month around
Israel's Dimona nuclear reactor as Israeli officials picked up unspecified
signs that Damascus might be preparing to attempt a destructive missile
strike on the Negev Desert facility, potentially releasing deadly
radiation that could affect many parts of Israel and beyond.
Israeli media reports said that American-made Patriot missiles batteries
were deployed around the reactor in early November in preparation
for a possible Syrian Scud D missile attack upon the strategic facility.
Built in the 1960's, it is located not far from Israel's fourth largest
city, Beersheva, in the Negev Desert. The reports added that red alerts
about a possible imminent Syrian strike were put into effect over two
dozen times during a seven day period beginning on November 4. Iran has
also vowed to target the site if either Israeli or American forces attempt
to attack its burgeoning nuclear program.
Military experts say the results of a direct missile strike on the Dimona
reactor would be extremely disastrous, releasing deadly radiation into
the local atmosphere that could end up fatally poisoning tens or hundreds
of thousands of people in the immediate vicinity of the attack, along
with residents of nearby Jordan. Deadly radiation would probably also
quickly spread into the Arab Gulf countries a few hundred miles to the
east, and also to Iraq. Iran itself would probably feel the effects,
along with other countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan beyond it, given
that
the prevailing winds normally flow from the Mediterranean Sea in the
west toward the east.
Foreign press reports revealed that Israeli air force jets had successfully
knocked out Syria’s entire air defense radar system in a strategic
missile strike on September 6. The action reportedly came just minutes
before IDF warplanes bombed a Syrian nuclear facility that was in the
final stages of construction in the eastern desert, not far from Iraq.
Direct American military involvement in the dramatic Israeli operation
was reported by several Israeli and US media outlets during the month.
United States officials would not publicly comment on the reports. US
military sources told me that American air force jets had accompanied
the Israeli warplanes during their mission, but had not dropped any bombs
on the destroyed site. A well-known Israeli weapons expert said
pre-attack satellite pictures taken of the site indicated that Syria
had actually been constructing a nuclear weapons factory, not a reactor
as was widely reported in the media.
HIZBULLAH MANUEVERS
Israeli military forces conducted large-scale ground and air maneuvers
in the north of the country in early November to test their readiness
to
face a possible new round of fighting with Hizbullah and/or Syrian forces.
Israeli naval vessels stationed in the Mediterranean Sea also participated
in the coordinated exercises.
Several days later, Hizbullah said that it conducted its own massive
war maneuvers not far from the Lebanese border with Israel.
Although the reported military exercises were apparently carried out
under the noses of thousands of international UN peacekeeping soldiers
that are supposed to prevent the militia from visibly operating in the
area, UN soldiers took no overt action. UN officials claimed they did
not
see any unusual activity in the area, which may have been due to the
fact that the militiamen reportedly carried out their war preparations
unarmed. Lebanese press reports said that Hizbullah leader Sheik Hassan
Nasrallah monitored the border exercises on sight, which
reportedly involved hundreds of highly trained militia fighters.
The United Nations issued a report the last day of October ominously
revealing that the Lebanese Shiite Hizbullah militia had fully rearmed
after last year's war with Israel. Released by UN Secretary General Ban
Ki-Moon as required by Resolution 1701 which ended the 2006 war,
the report said that the Iranian and Syrian backed force was now fully
rearmed with weapons more advanced than those it deployed during the
conflict. It revealed that the rogue militia now had rockets capable
of striking most parts of Israel, including Tel Aviv. It added that the
Lebanese force has three times as many land to sea missiles than it did
before the war broke out in July 2006. One such missile struck and largely
destroyed an Israeli ship patrolling off the coast of Beirut during the
early stages of the 34-day conflict.
Pointing out the obvious, the UN report stated that Hizbullah's post
war weapons acquirements had mostly come via illegal smuggling from nearby
Syria. Picturing the situation as "grave" and a "threat
to Lebanon's fragile stability," Ban Ki-Moon noted that Israel considers
the
Hizbullah's illegal arms acquisitions as "a strategic threat to
its security and the safety of its citizens." In fact, many Israeli
military analysts fear
that Hizbullah may now have the capability to strike the Dimona nuclear
reactor, which the group's Iranian paymasters have already publicly
listed as a prime target. They worry that the Shiite regime in Iran may
desire to spark off a new Hizbullah-Israel conflict, *which could easily
involve Syria, in order to deflect a possibly pending American assault
on Tehran's outlawed nuclear program.
Despite the fact that it is clearly Hizbullah and Syria that are severely
violating a key component of the UN ceasefire accord, the UN report also
blasted Israel for what Ban Ki-Moon described as its "continuing
violations of Lebanese air space." He charged that such overflights
"
undermine the credibility of the UN, and damage efforts to reduce tensions,
build confidence and stabilize the situation in southern Lebanon." However
Israeli analysts pointed out in response that IDF jets would not need
to conduct constant surveillance flights over Lebanon if Hizbullah was
not overtly smuggling in copious amounts of Syrian and Iranian rockets
and other weaponry in obvious preparation for another round of attacks
upon northern Israel's civilian population centers.
In a subsequent briefing to the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee, the head of the IDF's military intelligence branch warned
that Hizbullah is "getting stronger every day" as it "learns
how to live with the beefed up UN force" now stationed near Israel's
border with Lebanon. Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz also warned that
Syria is smuggling in large amounts of state of the art Russian-made
anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons to Hizbullah. He added that Syria
is also continuing to "update its Russian-supplied weapons arsenal" while
its main Mideast ally Iran moves ever closer to possessing the ultimate
weapon--nuclear warheads. He said the latest intelligence assessments
predict that Iran will possess the doomsday bomb within a space of just
two years, adding that hopes the extremist Shiite regime will be
internally overthrown before then are undoubtedly pipe dreams.
With the region moving far more in the direction of a major war than
imminent peace, it is reassuring to note that “The Lord has built
up Zion,
He has appeared in His glory. He has regarded the prayer of the destitute;
He has not despised their prayer (Psalm 102:16).
DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived and worked in Israel since 1980.
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