May 29, 2007
==================
Shalom!
Here is my news and analysis report for June, mostly covering the dramatic
events in the Gaza Strip during the month. The significance of the Hamas
takeover there is just beginning to sink in as regional and world leaders
deal with the fallout from the virtual coup Hamas staged against the
Palestinian Authority. I also examine developments concerning Syria
and Lebanon, and
how the takeover is affecting Gaza's small Christian community.
GAZA FALLS TO HAMAS
Nearly three decades after a major Middle East country, Iran, fell under
the chilling control of radical Islamic fundamentalists, another piece
of regional territory has been seized by Muslim extremists. Given that
one of
the main goals of America’s post 9-11 military and political strategy
was to topple the terror-supporting Taliban regime in Afghanistan and prevent
the spread of Al Qaida-style rule to other lands, the fall of the Gaza Strip
to complete Hamas control during June was a shocking bit of evidence that
Islamic militants remain as powerful as ever in this troubled region nearly
six years after New York’s Twin Towers came crashing down to the ground.
Many Israeli military commentators noted that the Palestinian Islamic
group, an offshoot of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood Movement that
has long been
banned by Arab regimes ruling from Cairo, could not have possibly taken
complete control over the strategically-situated piece of real estate
if Israeli soldiers
and civilians were still present in the Gaza Strip. The fact that Washington,
London and other Western capitals urged Ariel Sharon-now in a deep
coma for over 17 months-to uproot all 21 Jewish communities with
over 8,000
residents
from the coastal zone has come back to haunt them, as it does every
day the thousands of Israeli civilians forced to endure intensified
Hamas
rocket fire ever since the pullout was completed in September 2005.
The latest Hamas triumph produced a new humanitarian crisis in the
Gaza Strip, with hundreds dead or wounded, buildings looted, food
and fuel
in short supply,
and thousands attempting to flee the sealed off zone. Israeli political
analysts say it also dealt another major political blow to Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert.
After all, he was the principal Likud party promoter for the unilateral
withdrawal scheme that was long advocated by the opposition Labour
party, but strongly
opposed by most Likud leaders and the rank and file.
Despite Olmert’s immediate contention during a June visit to Washington
that the conquest might actually revive the dormant "land for peace" process,
most analysts pointed out that this proposition was extremely unlikely-given
that the Hamas victory can only further embolden the Islamic clerics who
run Iran and their Syrian and Hizbullah allies, not to mention Al Qaida activists:
reenergizing all of them to pursue Iran’s declared goal of annihilating
the world’s only Jewish State.
ISLAMIC RESISTANCE SEIZES THE DAY
Just as Lebanese Shiite Hizbullah leaders could reasonably claim
that their jihad fighters had "liberated" the Land of the Cedars from detested "Israeli
occupation" when IDF forces evacuated the country in May 2000, so the
Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement-widely known by its Arabic acronym,
HAMAS-was successfully able to claim that its violent "resistance" to
Israeli rule had driven the hated Jews from the Gaza Strip five years later.
This claim, widely accepted on the Gaza Strip’s troubled streets, and
also in Palestinian-controlled areas in Samaria and Judea, led in turn to
the group’s triumph in Palestinian Legislative Council elections just
four months after the Gaza Strip evacuation was completed. That in turn allowed
the radical group significant political cover to openly organize and arm
a 3,000 man Gaza militia force, buttressed by hundreds of local armed Hamas
cells.
When the corruption-ridden PLO-dominated PA security force resisted
this bold Hamas gambit, the stage was set for internal armed
clashes, which
began in earnest just over one year ago. Battles also occasionally
broke out in
PA zones north and south of Jerusalem. But very few expected
the official PA security contingent in Gaza-numbering some
40,000 men-to
crumble
so quickly, as they did in fighting that raged for five days
beginning on
June 10th.
Many analysts said the ominous truth was that when push came
to shove, many of the armed PA policemen saw the Islamic writing
on
the wall
and stayed
out of the fray, given the heavily outnumbered Hamas forces
the critical advantage they needed.
The implications of the unprecedented Hamas military takeover-which
overall PA leader Mahmoud Abbas termed a coup against his rule-are
unsettling
to both Israeli and PLO leaders, to say the least. The immediate
question that both are faced with is a very troubling one:
Could the frightening
Fatah
collapse that unfolded like lightening in the Gaza Strip be
repeated in
Judea and Samaria? Even more ominously, could clashes then
spread to nearby Palestinian-dominated
Jordan, possibly threatening the Hashemite monarchy that has
ruled the country since its founding in the 1920s? And what
about the
several hundred
thousand
Palestinians living in Lebanon-will clashes break out there
as well?
SHORT TERM SIGHT
Faced with the worst humiliation so far in his troubled time
in power, Abbas wasted no time in dissolving the Hamas-dominated
Palestinian
Unity Government
that was formed only two months before. The PA leader replaced
it
on June 15 with an "emergency government" of mostly technocrats led by
former Finance Minister Salam Fayad, who was elected to the Palestinian Legislative
Council in 2006 as head of the new "Third Way" political party,
along with long time Palestinian activist Hannan Ashrawi.
Born in Jordan and a graduate of the University of Texas
Austin campus, Fayad spent two decades living in the United
States-part
of that
time working at
the World Bank. The former economist has strong ties to
the Bush Administration. This well known fact naturally makes
him an American
lackey in the
eyes of many Palestinians, and a probable target of Hamas
attack.
Seemingly confirming Fayad’s "collaborator" status in many
Arab eyes, Western leaders flocked to endorse the new cabinet, followed later
on by China and other world powers. However, despite the quick international
support, the new PA government will only effectively hold sway in portions
of Judea and Samaria, where about 2.5 million Palestinians live (as compared
to an estimated 1.5 now under Hamas control in Gaza).
The emergency government will at least apparently have
lots of money to play with-both the United States and
the European
Union
rushed
to lift
economic
sanctions imposed on the former Hamas-led government
in 2006. But some Israeli analysts questioned the wisdom
of
this move,
noting
that Fatah
economic corruption
was a major factor in the Hamas electoral victory in
the first place. They argued that opening the financial
faucet
once again
will only
breed the
same results as last time-widespread Palestinian public
revulsion against Fatah
elites perceived to be living the high life due to generous
international largess, while the masses virtually starve.
POSITIVE SPIN
Facing continuing calls for his resignation in the wake
of the Winograd Commission interim report concerning
last year’s Lebanon War (with the full report
due out in July), Ehud Olmert tried to put the best possible light on the
portentous disaster that had engulfed Israel’s Gaza neighbor. While
holding previously scheduled talks in Washington DC with President George
W. Bush and other senior American officials, Olmert told reporters that the
Hamas triumph and PA-Gaza collapse might somehow energize the brain-dead
PLO-Israeli Oslo peace process. According to his thesis, the fact that Abbas
had effectively cut to pieces the February Mecca accord that joined his Fatah
party with Hamas in a so-called unity government might just open the way
for a separate peace deal with Abbas in his only remaining base of power,
PA-dominated areas of Jordan’s former West Bank.
However dozens of Israeli Knesset members, including
increasingly popular opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu,
joined many
media analysts in
terming this extreme wishful thinking. They noted
that Hamas had won an overwhelming
majority of votes in the West Bank, as well as in
Gaza, during the January 2005 Palestinian elections. Despite
the imposition
of international
economic
sanctions against the Hamas-dominated cabinet that
was sworn in two months later, widespread support
for the
radical group
did
not wane,
as proved
by the group’s subsequent triumph in municipal elections in several Palestinian
towns later in 2006, including in the former Christian stronghold of Bethlehem.
On top of this, the main reason many Palestinians
gave for supporting Hamas in the first place-rampant
corruption
in
the PA and Fatah-has
not changed.
In fact, various attempts to implement real reforms
in both bodies since then have largely failed,
as has been
widely
reported in
the Palestinian
press. Why Israel would suddenly be able to negotiate
a final peace deal with Abbas that would actually
stick in
the face
of overwhelming
Islamic
opposition-when it could not do that with the late
Yasser Arafat, who was known as the ‘founding father of the Palestinian nation’-was
hardly evident to Olmert’s many critics.
IRANIAN HAND
Yasser Abed Rabbo, a longtime PLO official and
chief aid to Abbas, blamed Iran for being behind
the violent
Hamas
Gaza
Strip takeover.
Speaking
to reporters on June 19, he said that "Iran supports non-democratic groups
in Palestine, Lebanon and in Iraq, and we hold Iran responsible for encouraging
Hamas to carry out its coup in Gaza." His comments came after Iranian
Foreign Minister Mottaki condemned the formation of a new PA government that
excluded Iran’s terrorist Hamas ally. Rabbo replied that Iran "has
no right to give us lessons in democracy."
Israeli Mideast experts were almost unanimous
in seeing the veiled hand of Iran behind the
latest
regional
upheaval. Some said that
nearly 30
years after Ayatollah Khomeini marched into
Tehran to the adulation of millions
of Iranians, the Shiite regime believes it
is now on the verge of establishing a new Persian
empire
that
will eventually
have
ascendancy
over regional
Sunni
Muslims. Waking up to the harrowing possibility
that a nuclear
armed Iran just might succeed in reaching that
vaulted goal, Arab League
ministers held an emergency meeting in Cairo
in mid-June to discuss the Gaza crisis.
Predictably,
Iran’s only Arab ally, Syria, resisted attempts to issue a unanimous
condemnation of the horrendously brutal Hamas takeover and a statement of
support for Abbas.
Meanwhile in Lebanon, Iran’s puppet Hizbullah militia force naturally
sided with its Hamas ally. This came as several Katyusha rockets landed in
the border town of Kiryat Shmona, hit hard during last summer’s Hizbullah
blitz upon northern Israel. But the militant Lebanese Shiite group, busy
trying to topple the duly elected government in Beirut, immediately disavowed
responsibility for the one-off attack, which damaged a car but thankfully
left no one injured. Israeli officials accepted the statement, saying that
the rockets were probably fired by Al Qaida-linked Palestinian cells known
to be operating in south Lebanon. Osama Bin Laden’s Palestinian surrogates
took responsibility for firing several rockets into Israel just months before
Hizbullah launched its cross-border raid last July, sparking off the Second
Lebanon War.
SYRIA IN FOCUS
The Israeli inner security cabinet held a
special session in early June to discuss
the possibility
of war in
the coming months with
Syria. This
came
as a Syrian parliament member confirmed
in an Al Jazeera interview
that his government is currently making
active war preparations, and as several
military
analysts predicted that a conflict could
break out as early as August. The Israeli
ministers
reportedly agreed
that PM Olmert had acting correctly in
sending recent messages to Damascus meant
to assure Baathist regime officials that
Israel is not planning a pre-emptive strike against Syria.
The security cabinet also discussed the
Premier’s public offer to open
peace negotiation with the Assad regime even if Israel would have to pay
what Olmert termed "a very high price for peace"-which all commentators
agreed meant the total uprooting of the estimated 30,000 Israelis living
on the strategic heights that rise above the lush Galilee panhandle. However knowing that the Israeli public is hardly in the mood to hand over more territory to Arabs who might then use it to launch further attacks upon the country-opinion polls in June showed over 90% of the public against such a Golan Heights pullout-many analysts said Olmert’s statement amounted to mere words meant for international consumption, not a serious indication that peace talks might soon begin with Syria.
Syria’s puppet militia force in Lebanon is also said to be feverishly
preparing for another round of conflict with Israel. That at least is according to Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz, a former military chief of staff and defense minister. He said in early June that Hizbullah now has around 20,000 rockets in its growing arsenal, most of them surreptitiously smuggled in from Syria over the past year in violation of last summer’s UN ceasefire accord. More ominously, he claimed that some of the missiles are of a longer range
than the group possessed last year, saying they could now potentially strike all of Israel, including the southern port city of Eilat. However, the head of the United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon, Italian General Claudio Graziano, claimed that Hizbullah had not returned to its former strength
in south Lebanon, saying evidence of the group is practically nonexistent along the border. However he would not comment on Mofaz’s statement that Hizbullah had rebuilt its rocket arsenal, and then some.
THE BOYS ARE BACK
The internal Labour primary produced a new party leader in June-former prime minister
Ehud Barak. However his triumph was thin, beating former Shin Bet internal security chief Ami Ayalon by just 51% to 48%. The campaign was marred by charges of vote buying, especially by Barak whose people reportedly had signed up whole Galilee Druze villages in recent months-securing support by promising financial
benefits after Barak joined the government-all the while knowing that most of his quot;supporters" were not really Labour
party voters at all.
Barak wasted no time in replacing the vanquished Amir Peretz as Defense Minister. The process was actually sped up by the Gaza crisis, with PM Olmert requesting that Barak join the government as Defense Minister just days after
his victory
in order to deal with the potential military fallout from the crisis. However he also made clear that he planned to replace Olmert as premier in the next year or so, presumably by winning new national elections. However opinion surveys taken after the Labour primary was held showed that Likud leader Netanyahu-who accurately predicted that Hamas would seize control over the Gaza Strip if Israel pulled out of the territory-is supported by at least 35% of the public for Israel’s top government job, with only some 20% picking Barak and just 8-10% for Olmert.
Meanwhile the Knesset elected Israel’s ninth president in June, and
the victor was veteran statesman Shimon Peres. His main rival, the Likud’s Ruby Rivlin, received only 38 votes in the first round, with 21 votes going to Labour’s candidate, former diplomat Collette Avital. Since it was clear that neither would beat Peres in the second round, both candidates pulled out and asked for a unanimous endorsement for the 83 year old veteran politician. However almost one third of the Knesset members did not take up the suggestion, with some saying they feared the aged firebrand politician would use his new platform to further his left-wing agenda, including a Golan Heights pullout and the uprooting of most Jews currently living in Judea and Samaria.
GAZA’S CHRISTIANS IN PERIL
Various Israeli and international media outlets reported that the small Gaza Strip Christian community, numbering around 2,000, is in imminent danger following the Hamas conquest. As PA forces squared off with Hamas fighters, attacks were launched on several churches and a Christian school in Gaza City, where most live, leading to an appeal from church leaders for international intervention. Many said they
planned to flee the Gaza Strip as soon as ossible.
One news report quoted a senior Hamas official warning that Christian women from now on must cover their heads in public, as Muslim women are required to do, adding that all alcoholic beverages, including ceremonial wine, will be banned from Gaza. He also threatened that any Christian caught carrying out any missionary activity would be "harshly dealt ith."
Gaza’s tiny Christian community is obviously in dire need of prayer
in the wake of the Hamas takeover, along with moderate Muslims. May the God
of all comfort watch over His people in Gaza, the God who "sets the
needy securely on high away from affliction, and makes His families like
a flock" (Psalm 108:41).
DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived and worked in Israel since 1980.
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