December 31, 2007:
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Shalom from Jerusalem,
Below is my latest news and analysis report covering the most important developments in Israel during December. It focuses this month on the surprise—many say shocking—American intelligence assessment that Iran is no longer pursuing nuclear weapons. The far reaching implications of this bombshell assessment are examined, along with Israel’s official response. I also look at the outcome of the short American peace conference held outside of Washington DC in late November, and renewed Israeli-Palestinian armed clashes in the Gaza Strip.
I plan to travel to South Africa in February to speak in the Johannesburg-Pretoria area, the southern coastal city of George, and the Cape Town area. Details will be sent out with my January report and posted on my website, www.ddolan.com Another speaking tour in the United States is being planned for April and May, with details to follow, along with an Autumn UK visit sponsored by CFI.
I wish you all a happy, healthy and productive 2008 ahead, and if you are able, come visit us in Israel—next year in Jerusalem!
AMERICAN BOMBSHELL SHAKES ISRAEL
By David Dolan
Israel was strongly impacted during December by two very different occurrences in the distant United States of America, whose President is due to visit here during January. First was the late November international peace parlay that took place over two days in Annapolis, Maryland, just north of Washington DC. As expected, it led to the resumption of formal Israeli-Palestinians peace negotiations in Jerusalem during the month, which quickly proved to be acrimonious at best. It also resulted in the Palestinian Authority receiving international financial pledges of over seven billion US dollars. Several Israeli politicians called for an immediate halt to the talks following a terror attack late in the month that left two young Israeli men dead.
The second—and undoubtedly far more important occurrence in terms of Israel’s immediate and long term stability, and even future survival—was the early December release of an American intelligence assessment that maintained “with high confidence” that Iran is no longer attempting to produce destructive nuclear weapons. The shocking appraisal was immediately and roundly rebuffed by senior Israeli government and security officials, including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Shimon Peres.
While on the surface the two issues seemed only vaguely related, many Israeli analysts said the prospects of a successful outcome for the White House regenerated peace process were significantly reduced by the startling American intelligence report. This was due to the widely held evaluation that the extremist Iranian police state regime, entrenched for almost three decades in Tehran, will now feel massively emboldened to rush full throttle ahead toward becoming a nuclear power, with little prospect for either American or Israeli military action to halt its hurtling atomic train. This in turn will significantly strengthen the resolve of Iranian leaders and their regional allies Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and even Al Qaeda, to escalate their jihad war to annihilate the detested Jewish State. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni warned in late December that the American report may even help propel pro-Western Arab gulf countries like Qatar and Kuwait to move into Iran’s rising strategic orbit.
BLOWN AWAY
The assessment by 16 America security agencies, including the CIA and Army Intelligence, that Iran had a clandestine nuclear weapons program, but halted it in 2003, was drawn up in recent months and published on December 2. Security analysts and media pundits around the globe quickly opined that the report effectively thwarted White House and Pentagon plans to potentially launch a major military operation to set back or destroy Iran’s nuclear program sometime before President George W. Bush is due to leave office in January 2009. However, it remains to be seen whether the surprise intelligence guesstimate will also scuttle similar plans in nearby Israel that are generally assumed to be in the final stages of preparation.
Preliminary notes to the “National Intelligence Estimate” (NIE) stated that it assessed both the “current status” and “likely direction” of Iran’s nuclear program over the next ten years. It added without elaboration that the joint evaluation was an “extensive reexamination” of a previous NIE assessment issued in 2005 which concluded “with high confidence that Iran is determined to develop nuclear weapons despite international obligations and pressure.”
In further preliminary notes, the report’s authors—members of the “National Intelligence Council” established under Richard Nixon during the waning days of the controversial Viet Nam War in 1973—admit that their assessment is only that: An informed guess as to what Iran might actually be doing, or planning to do, on the nuclear stage, as opposed to the publication of proven facts concerning this crucial issue.
“ We use phrases such as we judge, we assess and we estimate to convey analytical assessments and judgments. Such statements are not facts, proofs or knowledge. These assessments and judgments generally are based on collected information, which often is incomplete or fragmentary.”
The intriguing notes then chillingly admit that even a “high confidence” judgment, as issued in the latest NIE report about Iran’s nuclear weapons program and ambitions, is “not a fact or a certainty,” and indeed “carries the risk of being wrong.” One need only note that the exact same phrase, “high confidence,” was used in the 2005 report stating that Iran was still carrying on with a clandestine nuclear weapons program!
And so, due to a nonfactual and unprovable (and many say highly political) US security intelligence “high confidence judgment” based on admittedly “incomplete or fragmentary” information that may well be entirely off the mark, America’s current Commander in Chief, along with his Israeli counterpart, probably now feel that their hands are tied against ordering any military action to prevent the dangerous Shiite rogue state of Iran from building and using the ultimate Weapon of Mass Destruction.
Both George Bush and Ehud Olmert are seemingly corralled despite the provable fact that Iran is the chief sponsor of Hizbullah, a Lebanese Muslim group that carried out massive bombardments of Israeli cities in 2006, and a major supporter of the extremist Palestinian Hamas movement that violently took over the Gaza Strip last June. Plus there are those bothersome known facts that the ruling ayatollah’s and their minions are behind the smuggling of weapons into Iraq used to kill US and British forces stationed there; that they publicly vow to destroy Israel in the near future; and that they openly boast they are enriching uranium in defiance of UN demands that such potentially lethal action be immediately stopped.
RIGHT, WRONG OR JUST CONFUSING
A careful reading of the NIE assessment reveals that America’s government-paid sleuths remain fairly clueless as to whether or not Iran has actually halted the clandestine nuclear weapons program which was previously said to be in operation earlier this decade. Many critics of the report charged it amounted to nothing more than a badly bruised American intelligence community attempting in advance to ward off any “blame” for possible White House-initiated military action against Iran. They note that US spy agencies are still badly bleeding from their internationally ridiculed contention that Saddam possessed WMDs, which helped spark a prolonged and costly war in Iraq that has become highly unpopular at home over the past two years.
The report actually only states “with high confidence” in its central “Key Judgment” section that Iran “halted its nuclear weapons program” in the autumn of 2003, while adding in paragraph four that “We assess with moderate confidence Tehran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.” In other words, the security agencies are pretty sure that Iran’s weapons program was stopped, but less certain that it was not subsequently restarted, as Israeli officials insist it was.
The reports opening assessment is further weakened by a note placed in parenthesis in paragraph three revealing that two of the participating security agencies are only “moderately confident” that the alleged 2003 halt meant that Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program had been put on ice. “DOE and NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represent a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program.” Thus at least portions of Iran’s hidden nuclear weapons program may not have come to even a temporary end, again as Israeli leaders insist is the actual, if quite unpleasant, reality. Further clouding the murky picture, the report’s authors then admit that “we do not know whether Iran currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.”
THE RESPONSE
Israeli leaders scrambled to formulate a response to the astounding NIE assessment. While feeling compelled to restate Israel’s firm contention that Iran’s nuclear ambitions pose an existential threat to Israel and to the entire region, they also wanted to protect their close military and political alliance with the world’s current superpower.
Prime Minister Olmert—who has openly called the Iranian nuclear threat the greatest challenge to Israel’s existence since the country was created nearly 60 years ago—reportedly told a special session of his inner security cabinet on December 9 that Israel “stands by its incontrovertible evidence” that Iran is carrying on with its clandestine nuclear weapons program. He said Israeli intelligence agencies agreed with the American assertion that Iran halted its weapons program in the wake of the US-led military campaign to topple Saddam from power in early 2003, but uncovered significant evidence that it was subsequently restarted again in 2005.
The Israeli leader pointed out that the two main elements of such a weapons program—uranium enrichment and long range missile production—are being openly pursued by Iran, while other less important elements are thought to be occurring in secret. Olmert added that Iran also continues to overtly construct a heavy water nuclear reactor in the city of Arak, less than 200 miles southwest of Tehran, which will be capable of producing weapons grade plutonium once it goes on line.
Just days after the PM briefed his security cabinet on the political fallout caused by the NIE assessment; Israel’s Channel Ten reported that Iran test fired its new Ashoura missile during the Annapolis summit in late November. It said the missile can reach targets over 1,500 miles away, placing all of the Middle East and parts of southern Europe in harms way. According to Channel Ten and various Israeli and international security sources, another Iranian missile, the Shihab 4, is also being developed which will be capable of striking all of Europe, including London, Dublin, Oslo and Stockholm.
RUSSIAN BEAR MOVES IN
Foreign Minister Livni and other government leaders expressed deep concern that the US security report seriously harms Israel’s attempts to prod the world to reign in Iran’s nuclear program. This was seemingly demonstrated when the Kremlin announced mid month that since the assessment had supposedly “fully confirmed” its contention that Iran’s nuclear program “has no military component,” it was beginning to supply nuclear fuel for the reactor Russia helped Iran build at Bushehr, on the Persian Gulf (Iran later announced the reactor will be activated by mid-2008).
Later in the month, government officials in Moscow announced they will sell Iran the most sophisticated air defense shield currently available on the world weapons market, the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. Saying the system is better than anything currently produced by the United States, Israeli defense analysts warned that the top grade Russian system will make it very difficult for the highly esteemed Israeli Air Force to strike Iranian targets without sustaining substantial losses.
Despite their grave apprehensions, PM Olmert asked his cabinet ministers to refrain from speaking out publicly on the touchy topic. He averred that the White House appreciates Israel’s unease, and was demonstrating this by sending America’s top military commander to Jerusalem—Admiral Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—to directly weigh Israel’s profound distress over the controversial intelligence assessment.
Although Mullen refused to answer media questions during his whirlwind Dec 10 visit, his spokesman maintained that US political and military leaders “realize that Iran still poses a major threat to the region.” Captain John Kirby added that “the Iranians have tried in the past to develop their nuclear capabilities, they can still develop them, and they support terror groups in the region.” While admitting that America and Israel “do not now see eye to eye” on Iran’s nuclear agenda, he said the two countries “remain close allies and will continue to do so.”
DON’T UPSET UNCLE SAM!
Despite Olmert’s request that his junior ministers hold their tongues about the devastating NIE assessment, several spoke out anyway. The most pointed remarks came from Public Security Minister Avi Dicter, a widely respected security expert who headed the Shabak secret service from 2000 until 2005. Speaking at a town hall meeting in the coastal city of Holon on Dec 15, Dicter said “the American misconception” could lead the Middle East to a new war as severe as the Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli conflict, which nearly ended in Israel’s defeat and a nuclear showdown between Washington and Moscow.
“ Something went wrong in the American blueprint for analyzing the severity of the Iranian nuclear threat,” stated the Kadima party member to a packed audience, adding that Israeli leaders “hope the US will know how to correct this.” Bluntly terming the NIE report “a misconception by the world’s leading superpower,” he stressed that it was “not just an internal American matter” but had “serious repercussions for Israel and many other countries.” In further comments that probably proved particularly irksome to US officials, Dicter stated his conviction that “Israel and other states must help in any way to fix this miscalculation, including providing intelligence material.”
Although the comments were thought to represent the consensus view of Israel’s top officials, PM Olmert quickly rebuked Dicter for speaking out so forthrightly, and asked again that all government leaders cease making any public statements on the explosive issue, saying their words could harm vital ties with Washington.
Israeli officials were at least somewhat heartened to hear President Bush—due to make his first official visit to Israel on Jan 9-11—reply to the report with continued tough talk about the overall Iranian threat to regional stability: “The NIE doesn’t do anything to change my opinion about the danger that Iran poses to the world. Quite the contrary. I’m using the NIE as an opportunity to continue to rally our colleagues and allies.”
Still, the apparent fact that the intelligence assessment has effectively taken the President’s military option off the table has already had an immense impact upon Israel, as noted by veteran Jerusalem Post commentator Saul Singer: “The policy implications of the NIE cannot be overstated, regardless of its veracity. If the military option was ever real in the first place, it is now gone. The debate over a military operation against Iran during the Bush administration is over.” In summary, it now appears that it will fall upon tiny Israel alone—with a population one tenth that of Iran’s and territory eighty times smaller—to deal with the Iranian reality, despite probable spine chilling consequences.
DREAM WORLD
Nearly all Israeli officials agree that a lasting peace accord between their war weary country and the Palestinians will prove impossible to achieve until the radical Iranian-Syrian-Hizbullah-Hamas rejectionist train is somehow derailed. Nevertheless, the White House insisted on hosting a high profile international peace parlay near the US capital in late November.
Many Israeli commentators contended that the Annapolis conference, which brought together officials from dozens of countries around the globe, including Saudi Arabia and several Gulf Arab states, was nothing more than a glitzy American show to divert attention away from many other severe problems facing the Bush administration in the region (which they point out now includes Turkish military attacks upon Kurdish forces in northern Iraq, and the crumbling political situation in nuclear-armed Pakistan, due east of Iran, following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto).
Facing the imminent publication of the final Winograd Commission report focusing on his government’s failed Lebanon War performance, PM Olmert and the beleaguered PA leader Abbas both pledged at the peace gathering to work non stop to iron out a final peace accord during 2008. However most Israeli and Palestinian political specialists say no such agreement seems even remotely achievable during that time.
Indeed, the first round of resumed negotiations was nearly cancelled mid month when the Palestinians threatened a boycott to protest Israel’s decision to build more apartments in the southeast Jerusalem Har Homa neighborhood. Israeli leaders replied that if their Palestinian counterparts seriously think they will dismantle such homes as part of any final peace deal, there is no real reason to talk.
Coalition Shas party leader and cabinet minister Eli Yishai and Israel Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman were among dozens of Israeli politicians who demanded an immediate halt to the negotiations after two Orthodox Jewish men in their early 20s were viciously cornered and slain by Palestinian gunmen on Dec 21. The Israelis, both members of elite military units, were hiking with a female friend near a stream outside of Hebron when Palestinian gunmen surrounded them and opened fire. Well-known sons of prominent rabbis in nearby Kiryat Arba, the friends were shot dead after bravely returning fire while their female acquaintance took cover. PM Olmert said his government can take no further measures on the ground to promote the peace process, such as dismantling additional illegal outposts, until the Palestinians keep their commitment to halt all such terror attacks.
The apparent absurdity of the American peace parlay was further underlined when major fighting broke out in December between Israeli and Palestinian forces in the Gaza Strip following additional Kassam rocket assaults onto Israeli cities, including one that exploded just outside a packed elementary school in Sderot. Several dozen Palestinians were killed in the exchanges, including a prominent Islamic Jihad leader (the terror group admits to shooting most of the over 2,000 rockets that landed inside Israeli territory during 2007, double the number from the previous year).
Despite the heavy Palestinian rocket barrages, Israeli officials were happy to announce that only seven Jewish civilians were killed in terror attacks during 2007, down sharply from 17 slain in 2006. Meanwhile foreign tourists topped two million during the year for the first time since the Palestinian Al Aksa attrition war began in 2000, with a record number expected in 2008 as Israel celebrates its sixtieth year of statehood. May the new year be a blessed one for each of you as we eagerly wait for the time when “All the earth will worship Thee, and will sing praises to Thee; they will sing praises to Thy name” (Psalm 66:4).
DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived and worked in Israel since 1980.
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